Tampa’s stronger season profile meets a Buffalo side that has matched the Lightning’s 3-2 run over its last five.
Tampa arrives at KeyBank Center with an 11-4-2 record, 24 points and the No. 8 power-index spot; Buffalo is 8-6-3 with 19 points and ranks 23rd. Both teams are 3-2 across their last five and enter on one-game losing streaks, leaving a narrow recent-form split despite Tampa’s broader edge. Nikita Kucherov’s 20 points in 15 games headline the matchup against Tage Thompson, Buffalo’s leader with 16 points in 15. The shot battle could decide the margin: Tampa averages a +5.2 shots-on-goal differential per game, compared with Buffalo’s +1.3.